What is Going on
With Our Sun?
Are Hysterical Claims
Really True?
"Not since _______, have such violent
outbreaks been seen
on the surface of the sun as have been reported this year."
by M. Theroux and James Borges
The quote is from Harlan True Stetson, the date
in the blank is August 1917, and the year Stetson wrote this was
1937. It sounds like it could have been written today. I'm a
little dismayed at the hysteria being generated by the media
about our current solar condition. We seem to be witnessing
"grasping at straws" attempts to point the finger at
anything suspect of causing total chaos as we approach the new
millennium. At first it was Y2k that was supposed to end the
world as we know it, and as that died out due to challenges and
rational thought from real computer experts and industrialists
(note: the computer industry is preparing for sales in the year
2000 — not the end of the world), now the Sun is the most
recent victim to blame for our upcoming Armageddon. Mind you,
most of these claims are coming from the alternative media, who
again treasure alternative media sources for their documentation
and confirmation. These media types do not consult scientists who
are respected in the fields in which they work, rather they
consult with so-called alternative spokespersons, prophets, and
pseudoscientists (yes, I said that dreaded word) who profess
"radical changes are a coming" and "head for the
hills" mentality.
A classic example of this kind of behavior was presented to us
at BSRF last year. We received several faxes from a couple of
groups who had claimed that there was an extraordinary seismic
event that occurred and had lasted for hours. They suggested that
it had originated from deep inside the earth, and was
unprecedented in that it was not felt by anyone. They had also
suggested that it was probably a precursor to other potentially
devastating seismic events. I perused the seismic databases in
search of this anomaly and found nothing, so I asked the group if
they could provide any data on the event. I received another fax
with several seismograms from the internet's Live Seismic Server
which appeared to detail this event with a statement from the
group that the USGS was silent on the event — that they may
be involved in a coverup. After a quick glance at the seismograms
it was easy to correlate the data exactly with a known event that
had occurred on the day in question, and that their speculation
on the duration of the event had stemmed from their inability to
properly interpret the seismograms! Needless to say, after I
replied to the group with the correct analysis, it was never
mentioned again.
Of course, the USGS was not involved in any coverup —
they simply had no idea what these groups were talking about and
chalked it up to more lunatic hysteria — as do many
mainstream scientists when confronted with such data. I can
hardly blame them for their reactions as this is becoming more
commonplace as the millennium approaches. Many in the scientific
community are being bombarded with allegations of covering up
data and research even when they try to present their findings
openly. In order for the alternative science community to
properly liaison with mainstream science this will have to cease.
It is our hope that these attacks do not encourage elements of
quantitative science to withhold rather than reveal.
So then, what is really happening with our Sun? Is there
something unusual and extraordinary about the recent rise in
sunspot numbers? Are communications satellites, automobiles,
computers, powerplants, etc. going to be rendered useless? Is the
sun going to explode soon or lash out with a gigantic fireball to
consume the earth and her inhabitants? It's always a possibility,
but I don't think so. There are some things that solar activity
might be responsible for, but we'll check into that a little
later. First, let's look at some graphical comparisons of sunspot
activity through recent history. It has been stated by some media
personalities that the recent rise in sunspot numbers may be the
highest ever recorded — that the jump to over 300 (or 340)
is simply unexampled. [note: "Sunspot
Number" is comprised of a daily index of SUNSPOT activity
(R), defined as R = k (10 g + s) where S = number of individual
spots, g = number of sunspot groups, and k is a variable scaling
factor (usually <1) that indicates the combined effects of
observing conditions, telescope, and bias of the solar observers
See: http://spaceweather.com/java/archive.html#sunspotnum]
Rather than post all the graphs, here are some links to
historical solar and geomagnetic data charts from 1956-1991 which
show that unsmoothed sunspot numbers have indeed reached such
levels and higher:
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist9107_08.gif
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist7911_12.gif
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist5907_08.gif
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist5803_04.gif
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist5709_10.gif
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist5711_12.gif
http://www.dxlc.com/solar/history/hist5611_12.gif
Or for the really enterprising see this historical database of
daily numbers from 1818 to present (appears to be incomplete): http://www.oma.be/KSB-ORB/SIDC/DATA/dayssn.dat
During solar maximum there are many sunspots, and during solar
minimum there are few. The plot linked below shows the number of
smoothed sunspots observed from the year 1749 through the
present: http://www.sunspotcycle.com/images/zurich.gif
Now here is a graphical comparison of solar cycles 21, 22 and
our current Cycle 23:
| Cycle |
Monthly smoothed sunspot
number |
Actual monthly sunspot number |
| 21 |
Blue |
Dark blue |
| 22 |
Black |
Green |
| 23 |
Red |
Magenta |
|
|
 And, here is a graphical
comparison of solar cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and the current
Cycle 23 (using the international monthly smoothed
sunspot number):
|
While Cycle 23 (our present cycle) has been predicted to be
slightly above average (See: Cycle
23 will be above average but no record setter) Dr. David
Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center said, "It's
like saying we're going to have a mild or cold winter,"
It is now quite probable that the Earth's climate may be
linked to sunspots. The "Little Ice Age" corresponded
with a 70-year period, 1645-1715, when sunspots were thin in
number, the Maunder minimum. Also, there are strong statistical
associations linking current trends in climate (surface
temperatures) to trends in solar activity (See these two
excellent papers by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt from the Schroeter
Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Nova Scotia,
Canada entitled, SOLAR
ACTIVITY: A DOMINANT FACTOR IN CLIMATE DYNAMICS , and Solar
Activity Controls El Niņo and La Niņa ).
Now that we have fairly determined that Cycle 23 is not really
any different than previous cycles, what is it that the sun will
affect, and what is it that we should really concern ourselves
with?
On to Part II - Sunspots and Human Behavior
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